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ASA: biofuel demand offsets weaker soybean export demand only in 2026/27 projection
American Soybean Association economists modeled U.S. soybean prices against marketing year 2023/24 demand levels. Weaker export demand cut soybean prices by an estimated net $0.87 per bushel in MY 24/25 and $1.38-$1.81 in MY 25/26, while growing domestic biofuel demand added $0.22 in MY 25/26 and a projected $0.42 in MY 26/27. Only in the projected MY 26/27 case - conditional on October 2026 USDA WASDE estimates, including resumed Chinese purchases - does the combination turn net positive, by an estimated $0.18 per bushel. Soybean oil use for biofuel rose from nearly 8.9 billion pounds in 2020 to about 14 billion pounds in 2025. The analysis attributes part of the export decline to rising Brazilian production and China trade disruption; China is on track to buy just over 12 MMT in MY 26/27 versus 22 MMT or more historically.